Plinko simulator

Plinko odds follow the binomial distribution

With n rows the ball makes n left-or-right bounces. The bucket it lands in equals the number of right bounces, k, from 0 to n. The chance of bucket k is C(n, k) / 2^n, where C(n, k) counts the paths that end there.

That puts most balls in the middle. On a 16-row board the centre bucket takes 19.6% of drops, while each outer bucket has a 1 in 65,536 chance (0.0015%). On 8 rows the outer buckets come up 1 in 256 times. The histogram compares your observed landing frequency with these exact values.

How plinko payouts set the RTP

Return to player is the sum over all buckets of chance × multiplier. The tables here follow the Stake-style layout: small multipliers below 1× in the middle, large ones at the edges, and each table tuned so the RTP lands close to 99%. The exact figure for the selected table is shown as theoretical RTP, and the readouts also show the chance of the top multiplier and the chance of getting back less than your bet.

Risk level changes the shape, not the average. Low risk keeps the middle buckets near 1× and caps the edges at around 5.6× to 16×. High risk drops the middle to 0.2× and pushes the edges up to 1,000× on 16 rows. Both return about 99 cents per dollar over time, but high risk swings much harder.

Is plinko rigged?

On a provably fair casino, no. Each bounce comes from a server seed that was hashed and shown to you before the bet, combined with your client seed and a nonce, so the casino cannot change the path after you play. You can check any result yourself once the server seed is revealed.

Plinko can still feel rigged because most balls land in the low-paying middle. That is the binomial distribution doing its job. If you drop 1,000 balls here, the landing histogram matches the expected curve closely and the RTP settles near 99%, with the shortfall coming from the built-in edge.

• Chance of bucket k = C(n, k) / 2^n.
• RTP = Σ C(n, k) / 2^n × multiplier(k).
• Expected loss per drop = bet × (1 − RTP), about 1%.